Good morning!
Trend Indicators:
Canadian Stock Market: Still in downtrend
US Stock Market: Changed from Downtrend to Uptrend based on Friday’s closing data
US Bond Market: Still in downtrend
In the markets:
Most worldwide markets gained last week, with the notable exception of the continuing underperformance of Emerging Markets. US indices gained an average +2%, led by Small Caps at +2.9%, with the S&P 500 gaining +1.6%. Developed International indices gained an average +1% (led by European markets which enjoyed their best day in months on Thursday), but Emerging International indices once again lagged with an average loss of -3%.
Trend Indicators:
Canadian Stock Market: Still in downtrend
US Stock Market: Changed from Downtrend to Uptrend based on Friday’s closing data
US Bond Market: Still in downtrend
In the markets:
Most worldwide markets gained last week, with the notable exception of the continuing underperformance of Emerging Markets. US indices gained an average +2%, led by Small Caps at +2.9%, with the S&P 500 gaining +1.6%. Developed International indices gained an average +1% (led by European markets which enjoyed their best day in months on Thursday), but Emerging International indices once again lagged with an average loss of -3%.
Economic data released in the US last week was generally solid. The
US manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was slightly above
forecasts in June at 50.9, after dipping below 50 in May. Personal
income rose a better-than-expected 0.5% in May. Initial jobless claims
fell by 9,000 to 346,000 for the week ended June 22nd. Pending home
sales jumped 6.7% in May, the most since April 2010. On Friday, the
Non-Farm Payrolls number came in above estimates at 195,000, and the US
market responded with a good rally. (Wall St. Journal)
Following the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls number, bond yields
immediately spiked higher in the US. The 10-year note leaped from 2.50%
to 2.74%, a huge increase and the highest level in two years. At
first, the stock market sold off in response to the rise in rates, but a
feeling of “perhaps good news really *is* good news” took hold, and the
market rallied to finish at the day’s highs with a gain of +147 in the
Dow Jones Industrials. (Barron’s)
In Europe, the latest reports show contraction slowing in the
Eurozone as a whole, while several countries are showing positive
growth, including the UK and Germany. Economic confidence in the euro
zone rose to 91.3 in June, a one-year high. Retail sales in Germany
were up 0.8% in May, the most in four months. Unemployment in Germany
decreased for the first time in four months in June, falling by 12,000.
Business confidence in Italy was at a 16-month high in June at 90.2,
and the the U.K.’s manufacturing PMI rose to 52.5 in June, a two-year
high. Further, ECB head Mario Draghi soothed markets again by telling a
news conference that “Monetary policy will remain accommodative for as
long as necessary.” (guggenheimpartners.com)
However, in China, operating conditions deteriorated at the quickest
pace since last September. After adjusting for seasonal factors, the
HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was reported at 48.2 in June, down
from 49.2 in May, signaling a modest deterioration of business
conditions. Operating conditions have now worsened for two successive
months, according to markit.com. (markit.com)
Looking Ahead:
The internal indicators that I use to determine the trend of the stock markets switched from downtrend to uptrend based on Friday’s closing data (in the US stock market). The stock strategies that I was using based on these indicators went to cash several weeks ago. I expect to move that money back into the market today, based on the parameters and logic associated with each strategy. The US bond market continues to struggle with the 10 year US Treasury bond jumping from 2.5% to 2.75% on Friday (as noted in news snippet above). Mortgage rates have jumped substantially and data last week indicates that mortgage re-finance activity has virtually come to a halt.
Are we out of the woods because the indicators have moved back to an uptrend signal? Of course not. These signals are designed to pick up the shorter term (weeks to month’s) changes in trend and to alert us to when to buy or sell. The intermediate term indicator (months to years) continues to signal downtrend. The rallies the last several days have been on very low volume but the bottom line is the markets have been going up so it’s time to put some money back to work.
On the bond front, I expect that I will be liquidating more of the bond holdings and moving that money to the safety of cash while this period of uncertainty and high volatility (very high for bonds) exists. As always, I will continue to monitor the markets closely and to take action as deemed necessary to protect my client accounts and to make them grow.
God Bless and have a wonderful week!
Always At Your Service,
Jeffrey D. Voudrie, CFP® Practitioner
Looking Ahead:
The internal indicators that I use to determine the trend of the stock markets switched from downtrend to uptrend based on Friday’s closing data (in the US stock market). The stock strategies that I was using based on these indicators went to cash several weeks ago. I expect to move that money back into the market today, based on the parameters and logic associated with each strategy. The US bond market continues to struggle with the 10 year US Treasury bond jumping from 2.5% to 2.75% on Friday (as noted in news snippet above). Mortgage rates have jumped substantially and data last week indicates that mortgage re-finance activity has virtually come to a halt.
Are we out of the woods because the indicators have moved back to an uptrend signal? Of course not. These signals are designed to pick up the shorter term (weeks to month’s) changes in trend and to alert us to when to buy or sell. The intermediate term indicator (months to years) continues to signal downtrend. The rallies the last several days have been on very low volume but the bottom line is the markets have been going up so it’s time to put some money back to work.
On the bond front, I expect that I will be liquidating more of the bond holdings and moving that money to the safety of cash while this period of uncertainty and high volatility (very high for bonds) exists. As always, I will continue to monitor the markets closely and to take action as deemed necessary to protect my client accounts and to make them grow.
God Bless and have a wonderful week!
Always At Your Service,
Jeffrey D. Voudrie, CFP® Practitioner
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